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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Fowl Track of the Day
Manchurian Reed Warbler, 南堡滩涂 (Nanpu Mudflat), Hebei, China. “Two singing birds – one seen carrying meals. Sound recorded. Follows on from a hen seen at this website on the 28 July 2016 & marks a big vary extension for this VULNERABLE species.”
“Showcasing the spectacle of hen migration” [BirdCast]. • I’m not a stone birder, so I don’t already learn about this. Cornell Lab of Ornithology concerned, which is good. Helpful map:
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“The Honorable Shenna Bellows Maine Secretary of State” (letter) [Free Speech for the People]. “Your oath to assist the Structure, and the weighty accountability entrusted to you by Maine voters as Secretary of State, impel you to exclude Mr. Trump’s identify from the record of ‘certified candidates’ within the presidential major. However moderately than wait till after he submits his declaration of candidacy, with the urgency of an approaching major election, we urge you to deal with this crucial situation now. Mr. Trump’s conduct encouraging the ‘Huge Lie’ of a stolen election, encouraging and inciting an rebel, and facilitating that rebel by refusing to intervene to cease it regardless of pressing requests that he accomplish that and by supervising subordinates who actively blocked the Nationwide Guard from aiding the besieged Capitol Police, renders him ineligible for any federal workplace, together with that of president.”
* * * “The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the legislation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public which means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by way of it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been moderately lots of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Struggle. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are moderately lots of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:
The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by way of his position within the rebel that passed off on January 6, 2021.
Taking “rebel” as learn (I have to do extra studying), this has been extra of my persevering with protection of Part Three.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “The Republican Paradox: Conservative Voters Who Nominate Moderates” [Mark Penn (!), The Messenger]. “[M]odern historical past of GOP nominees exhibits one thing shocking: The reasonable candidate has constantly received the get together’s nomination. These major voters even have a behavior of shredding frontrunners and bringing in outsiders. So, simply possibly, it’s not over. Republican voters selected Sen. John McCain of Arizona over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, and now-Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah over Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) or former Home Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) in 2012. In 2016 they picked Donald Trump for his brash outsider standing, however not for his conservative bona fides — as a result of the hard-right candidate that yr would have been Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas…. A evaluation of the latest Wall Avenue Journal ballot of Republican major voters exhibits they’re a majority of suburban voters and, whereas extra working-class voters have joined them, they nonetheless are a extra extremely educated group than the citizens as a complete, with 54% who’re school graduates or extra. They’re undoubtedly an older get together, with 68% of the GOP voters over 50, however 49% are girls and 75% of them are married. How believable is it that this group of older, extremely educated suburban household voters are going to return Trump to workplace if introduced with a extra compelling various?” • Therefore, maybe, Trump outflanking DeSantis on abortion from the left. Therefore additionally Trump’s place on Ukraine (the place I believe he’s forward of the curve, and the Beltway behind it).
* * * “DeSantis megadonor nonetheless not bought on presidential bid, saying his ‘ongoing battle with Disney’ is ‘pointless’” [Business Insider]. “Ron DeSantis nonetheless hasn’t secured the assist of Ken Griffin, the Republican billionaire who was the most important donor to the Florida governor’s 2022 re-election marketing campaign. ‘I don’t know his technique,’ Griffin stated in an interview with CNBC. ‘It’s not clear to me what voter base he’s aspiring to attraction to.’ Griffin, the CEO of the multinational hedge fund Citadel, gave $5 million to DeSantis’ re-election effort. And he instructed POLITICO in an interview final November that he was able to assist the governor’s presidential marketing campaign, saying that ‘our nation can be well-served by him as president.’ However Griffin has been apparently dissatisfied with the way in which DeSantis’ marketing campaign has been run, and his feedback within the CNBC interview are his most definitive up to now. ‘First-term governor — only a phenomenal job,’ stated Griffin. ‘However that hasn’t been how this previous couple of months has performed out.’ ‘The continued battle with Disney I believe is pointless,’ Griffin continued. ‘The truth is, it doesn’t replicate nicely on the ethos of Florida.’” • Squillionaire yanks DeSantis’s choke chain. Poor little man, down on all fours like that.
* * * “Inside emails present Biden admin officers coordinating on shielding Pete Buttigieg’s govt jet use’ [FOX]. “In December, Fox Information Digital reported that, primarily based on flight monitoring knowledge, Buttigieg had taken 18 journeys on an FAA-managed fleet of government plane, reserved for presidency officers for events when flying industrial isn’t possible. The flight data aligned with Buttigieg’s inner calendar obtained on the time by Individuals for Public Belief. Following that report, Fox Information Digital filed an FOIA request for detailed data and prices of all flights logged by FAA planes since early 2021. For months, the DOT FOIA workplace repeatedly delayed offering the requested data. Then, on Feb. 27, the FAA lastly shared the flight log for its personal jets nearly instantly after the Transportation Division’s inspector common introduced an investigation into Buttigieg’s use of the planes. The FOIA workplace, although, opted to go away prices related to all of the flights carrying Buttigieg and his advisers clean and ignored a number of makes an attempt for clarification.” • And so forth. Value a learn for the sheer grim pettiness of all of it. The NY Submit provides a element, kinda. “Buttigieg, 41, has taken journeys on planes managed by the FAA to Nevada, Florida, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Ohio and New Hampshire for departmental duties,
* * * “Newsom says Biden’s age is not any drawback: ‘I desire a seasoned professional’” [FOX]. • Within the Center Ages, they seasoned their rotting meat too! (Truly, that’s an city legend, however for the sake of the joke….)
“California Gov. Gavin Newsom mocks Republican impeachment effort as ‘pupil authorities’ and says ‘after all’ Harris needs to be on 2024 ticket” [CNN]. “The California governor, who has been the topic of 2024 hypothesis as he has traveled to Republican-led states in latest months and agreed to a Fox Information debate with Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, insisted he won’t run for the White Home himself. ‘The reply is not any,’ Newsom stated. ‘No ambiguity.’ He additionally stated he has not thought of whether or not he would make a superb president. ‘I’m not that man. I’m simply not,’ he stated…. ‘Biden-Harris administration — a masterclass by way of efficiency, bipartisan offers on infrastructure, bipartisan offers on weapons and debt ceiling, on the CHIPS and Science Act,’ he stated. ‘I imply, by definition, if I believe this administration final two, two and a half years, has been one of the crucial excellent administrations the previous couple of many years, and he or she’s a member of that administration, she will get to put and declare credit score to lots of that success….’ he stated. Newsom stated Democrats have to get ‘out of this form of navel-gazing about Joe Biden, and let’s get going.’ ‘Let’s get on the prepare. This prepare has left the proverbial station,’ he stated.” • Hmmm. “No ambiguity” is fairly near a Sherman assertion.
* * * “Did RFK Jr. trace the ‘rigged’ DNC might power him to run third get together?” [The Hill]. “Stated RFK Jr., partly: ‘If the DNC goes to rig it in order that it’s merely inconceivable for anyone to problem President Biden, you understand I would like to take a look at different options. As a result of I can’t return to the individuals who assist me and to my donors and say you understand I’m on this to make some extent. I would like to indicate them a street to victory …’ ‘Different options.’ Increase goes the political dynamite…. Because the DNC, along side the Biden White Home, continues to attempt to silence and ostracize Kennedy whereas punishing states similar to Iowa, New Hampshire and Georgia — together with tens of millions of potential major voters — it definitely appears as in the event that they don’t belief the individuals to talk for themselves. The DNC and the Biden White Home might rapidly study that it’s one factor to attempt to silence RFK Jr. It’s fairly one other to try to disenfranchise the votes of tens of millions of Individuals. Traces are being drawn within the sand. Can the DNC and Biden see them?” • And the creator’s bio: “Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications advisor, was a author within the White Home for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former particular assistant for coverage and communications on the Pentagon over the past three years of the Bush administration.” The style the place a Republican helpfully explains to the Democrats the right way to win by providing them a poisoned chalice is a hardy perennial, and the world is so the other way up that the recommendation appears smart (no less than to me).
* * * OH: “The Democrats Should Hold the Senate at All Prices—and the Coal Mine Canary Is Ohio” [The Nation]. “Democrats want to take care of their razor-thin Senate majority in the event that they hope to enact President Biden’s second-term agenda—or, God forbid, fend off Trump’s. That prospect hinges on just a few incumbents going through robust reelection fights. Essentially the most crucial, must-win seat belongs to Sherrod Brown, a senator from Ohio… Democrats have 23 Senate seats up for reelection, and—assuming the vp, Kamala Harris, continues to be there to interrupt the tie—they will solely lose one to maintain their majority. Although Republican operatives within the state admit defeating Brown will likely be a ‘dogfight,’ present polls have him up by simply 0.4 proportion factors over one attainable opponent, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Each The Prepare dinner Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball name this race a toss-up….. Joe Manchin’s slide to the darkish aspect and Kyrsten Sinema’s wildcard methods depart Democrats no room for error. If Brown loses, and takes the Democratic Senate with him, democracy hangs within the steadiness.”
* * * “What Are The Swing States Of The Future?” [FiveThirtyEight]. First query — admittedly it’s nonetheless early (come together with your ???? takes, I offer you permission to alter your thoughts later), however what do you suppose are probably the most underrated potential swing states for the 2024 cycle? nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): I believe an underrated swing state is Florida. Folks have written it off after it swung unexpectedly to Republicans in 2020 and after Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis received reelection by nearly 20 proportion factors in 2022. However individuals neglect that former President Donald Trump received it in 2020 by solely 3 factors. For the same cause, I believe persons are too fast to depend out blue-ish states like New Hampshire and Minnesota as swing states. The partisan lean of each states is barely round 3 factors towards Democrats.” • Hmm. Volatility, then (I’m used to having a fairly fastened record, early.) Value a learn to see the traditional knowledge in formation.
Republican Funhouse
“The Non secular Proper’s Grip on the GOP Is Weakening. That’s Working to Trump’s Benefit.” [Politico]. “Former President Donald Trump has made quite a lot of statements in latest months which may have pushed a wedge between his marketing campaign and spiritual voters. In April, Trump acknowledged that he believed abortion needs to be regulated on the state degree, with little interference from the federal authorities. At a city corridor in June, Trump spoke of abortion in crass, deal-making phrases: ‘What I’ll do is negotiate so persons are blissful.’ These statements have been met with robust backlash from Susan B. Anthony Professional-Life America, the anti-abortion group that described Trump’s feedback on a federal ban as a ‘morally indefensible place for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate.’ The dustups recommend Trump’s robust assist amongst white evangelicals is likely to be in danger. However it could not matter. [Trump] can afford some erosion of his assist from evangelicals. That’s as a result of Trump’s actual base of assist within the 2016 major contest got here from a rising group within the GOP whose influence has been largely unnoticed: Republicans who infrequently darken the door of a church, synagogue or mosque. I’m a quantitative scholar of American faith and politics and have been making 1000’s of graphs about each topics during the last a number of years. The info present that the previous president’s assist amongst this low-attender group is rising, which implies that within the quick time period, even when Trump does alienate some religiously religious members of the non secular proper, he stays nicely positioned to safe the nomination.” • I’m wondering if this modification additionally strengthens the “Nationwide Conservatives”?
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * “Voter Registration Charities: A Huge, Ignored Scandal” [RealClearInvestigations]. “Nonprofit voter registration, and the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) actions that often accompany it, have develop into the guts of a billion-dollar trade in America. In response to Candid’s Basis Funding for U.S. Democracy database [Candid], since 2011 almost 60,000 grants have been made for ‘Voter Schooling, Registration, and Turnout’ and ‘Civic Participation,’ benefitting 15,000 completely different organizations to the tune of $5.9 billion {dollars}…. My latest particular report, How Charities Secretly Assist Win Elections, ripped away that fig-leaf. The report reveals the untold story of a nondescript charity named the ‘Voter Registration Undertaking’ that was used to funnel over $100 million right into a five-year voter registration scheme hatched by Clinton marketing campaign operatives to assist Democrats win elections in 2020. Utilizing tax types, leaked paperwork, and leaked emails, the report exhibits how the scheme aimed to register over 5 million ‘non-white’ voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Nevada; the way it was developed by way of a number of drafts and edits right into a extremely refined plan dubbed the Everyone Votes Marketing campaign; and the way that plan was ultimately adopted by a brilliant PAC tied to Sam Bankman-Fried that instructed billionaire donors to maintain it utterly secret because it was ” • Blech. Everyone concerned posing as extraordinarily high-minded, after all!
“If You’re A Star They Let You Do It” [Eschaton].
Apparently, squillionaires might be squillionaires, and squillionaire globalists be squillionaire globalists, solely when they don’t seem to be members of a protected identification, identities being controlling in all classification struggles. I bear in mind the identical nonsense within the UK when the press, the spooks, the the PLP, assisted by the Israeli embassy, have been gutting Corbyn by enjoying the anti-semitism card (laughably unfaithful in Corbyn’s case, besides to a gaggle of hyperventilating aghastitudinacs). Atrios is generally very level-headed, so I can solely conclude that inner strain amongst Democrats to adapt is nice (on condition that Soros lavishly funds their NGOs, and AIPAC is what it’s).
Realignment and Legitimacy
“The Republicans’ ‘Extra Seat’ Edge in State Legislatures” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “We analyzed 48 states to see which have probably the most lopsided state Senate and state Home chambers in comparison with how the state voted for president…. For Democrats, Hawaii, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have probably the most “”extra seats”” above the presidential vote threshold. For Republicans, the record is each longer and extra various, with Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin standing out as no less than considerably aggressive states the place the Republicans have giant extra seat benefits…. The GOP has achieved important ranges of extra seats in about thrice as many states because the Democrats have…. So, whereas unusually giant Democratic legislative majorities in just a few states is likely to be tempted to outrun their voters’ tolerance for progressive insurance policies, the Republicans might pursue extra conservative insurance policies than the presidential vote would recommend in thrice as many states. It’s no shock, then, that the record above is chock-full of states which have handed probably the most stringent abortion legal guidelines within the nation. And in three of those states — Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio — voters have rebelled by backing poll measures aligned towards additional curbs on abortion entry. This means that the GOP’s extra legislative majorities is likely to be underestimating their constituents’ want for extra reasonable insurance policies.” Helpful map:
Additional: “My guess, although, is that gerrymandering, and even geography, issues lower than one may suppose. I believe that it has extra to do with the minority get together turning headlong right into a spiral of irrelevance Notably given the latest decline of voter willingness to separate tickets, there comes some extent at which a celebration’s weak spot in presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial contests turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy. As soon as a celebration’s prospects appear grim in a selected state, it turns into arduous to get credible candidates to run for workplace, and it turns into arduous to boost cash to fund a good get together infrastructure.”
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Search for the Helpers
Excellent news:
It is a tangible signal that our efforts are working. We’ve efficiently taught a ton of individuals to search for CPC mouthwash, to the purpose that Colgate *modified their packaging*.
Public well being businesses aren’t sharing information about mouthwashes. However we’re. Individuals are listening to us. https://t.co/4IseJJlSzt— lizwhatsherface.bsky (@RealGayArbys) September 19, 2023
Extra excellent news:
received a seat on the grad faculty senate after describing the necessity for clear air, the repercussions when we do not have it, and steps i’ve began taking to safe it for the category 🙂 i used to be nervous devoting my entire blurb to covid, however i believe persons are so bored with being sick
— rnussbaum11.bsky (@rnussbaum11) September 18, 2023
Maskstravaganza
Vaccines don’t forestall transmission, however that information has apparently not reached everybody:
Seen on the pink line this morning. COVID is surging and there are adverts on the subway telling individuals to “”neglect”” masks—regardless of overwhelming proof that masks assist forestall the unfold of COVID. pic.twitter.com/OlGgSTjwti
— Maya Chavez (@maya_chavez_) September 19, 2023
That is the Purple Line in Chicago, not Boston. In any other case, I’d have thought the MGH had sponsored the advert.
Vaccines
I’m not a vaccine maven, and the story of how Novavax got here to not be accepted isn’t one I’ve adopted:
There’s lots of complicated jargon describing why Novavax is the very best out there COVID vaccine.
Right here is the plain English model:
Novavax helps your immune system goal the components of the spike protein that keep the identical between variants. That impact will get stronger each shot. https://t.co/nD4S3kdK0t
— Friesein (@Friesein) September 10, 2023
Maybe readers who know extra about Novavax than I do can clarify.
Elite Maleficence
Maskless Mandy infects one other loss of life lure:
Nice go to to Vida Senior Dwelling yesterday! Because of those that acquired their flu + Covid vaccines. Our seniors—from all communities—can get their up to date Covid, RSV, and flu vaccines now to remain secure this fall/winter. pic.twitter.com/7eRrcPBS3r
— Mandy Ok. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) September 19, 2023
“Keep secure” is similar “You might be protected” message propagated by the Biden administration in 2021. It was a lie then, since vaccination doesn’t forestall transmission, and it’s a lie now. Closed home windows, too.
Science advances:
Wow, there may be progress in any case. I had misplaced hope of seeing @mvankerkhove write about “threat of indoor airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor areas”.
Let’s hope there may be actual follow-up, after all. And that airborne is acknowledged as DOMINANT for COVID-19 https://t.co/FDZEfQ5REP
— Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez (@jljcolorado) September 18, 2023
Not less than the notorious “FACT CHECK: ‘COVID-19 is NOT airborne’” tweet is not up. However:
Oh my phrase.
This video ????
And by no means an apology, even now she admits it. pic.twitter.com/XXIpYEeQ4T— tern (@1goodtern) September 19, 2023
Van Kerkhove’s remarks have been themselves misinformation, although by no means categorized as such.
Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, September 18:
Lambert right here: The nationwide drop is due solely to the South. Different indicators — scattered and partial although they be — additionally converge on a drop: ER visits, positivity. We will see. (I would come with CDC’s wastewater map for comparability, nevertheless it’s eleven days previous.)
Regional knowledge:
The identical regional variation additionally seems within the Walgreen’s positivity knowledge. Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 16:
Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). Nonetheless BA.2.86 right here, not even within the word, however see beneath at Positivity.
From CDC, September 2:
Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it appears to be like like we’ve got a “tag workforce,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to dimension. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of sick intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, September 9:
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of September 19:
Drop continues. I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. September 9:
Word the slight drop, in step with Walgreens. Not less than now we now that hospitalization tracks positivity, which is good. Even when we don’t know what number of circumstances there are.
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, September 18:
-8.3%. An unlimited drop (so not Labor Day knowledge). Nonetheless, I can’t recall seeing the map so polarized; a lot deep inexperienced, a lot deep pink. Absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Curiously, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.)
Cleveland Clinic, September 16:
Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, August 26:
A drop! And listed here are the variants:
No BA.2.86 for 2 of the long-delayed assortment weeks. I’ve highlighted the 2 leaders: EG.5 and FL.1.5.1. Curiously, these are the 2 leaders inside the USA additionally, suggesting the nationwide and worldwide bouillabaisse is analogous. Or we’re infecting the world.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 13:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Whole: 1,175,354 – 1,175,172 = 182 (182 * 365 = 66,430 deaths per yr, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, September 17:
Lambert right here: That is now being up to date day by day once more. Odd. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Housing: “United States Housing Begins MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US sank 11.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized fee of 1.283 million in August 2023. It’s the largest lower since July 2022.”
At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 48 Impartial (earlier shut: 48 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 52 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 19 at 1:53:42 PM ET.
Class Warfare
“SARS-CoV-2 an infection and lengthy COVID amongst California farmworkers” [The Journal of Rural Health]. “The prevalence of lengthy COVID (outlined as self-reported SARS-CoV-2 an infection with signs >28 days) amongst farmworkers with a suspected or test-confirmed an infection was 61.8%. ” • Holy [family blog].
Information of the Wired
“How Infants Unravel the Origin of Acutely aware Consciousness and Function” [Neuroscience News]. “For the examine, infants started the experiment as disconnected observers. Nonetheless, when researchers tethered one of many infants’ ft to a crib-mounted child cell, infants found they might make the cell transfer. To catch this second of realization like lightning in a bottle, researchers measured toddler and cell motion in 3D house utilizing cutting-edge movement seize know-how to uncover dynamic and coordinative options marking the When an toddler’s foot is tethered to the cell, every foot motion causes the cell to maneuver. It was thought that the extra the cell strikes, the extra the toddler is stimulated to maneuver, producing but extra cell movement…. Aliza Sloan, Ph.D., lead creator and a postdoctoral analysis scientist in [Florida Atlantic University’s] Heart for Advanced Methods and Mind Sciences, developed a quantitative ‘aha!”” detector to seek for abrupt will increase in toddler motion fee associated to sudden toddler discovery. Sloan’s approach demonstrated that the ‘delivery’ of company might be quantified as a ‘eureka-like,’ pattern-changing part transition inside a dynamical system that spans the infant, the mind, and the surroundings. The system switches from a much less correlated state to a state the place each actions of the cell and the tethered limb are extremely coordinated because the toddler discovers its purposeful connection to the cell. The brand new method used on this examine frames company as an emergent property from the purposeful coupling of organism and surroundings.” • So consciousness doesn’t exist “within the mind”?
Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Late Introvert:
Late Introvert writes: “2023 Garlic crop, the very best ever, grown within the entrance yard. We took down the useless Inexperienced Ash final fall, so far more solar this rising season.”
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