One of many topics we’ve returned to time and again since Vladimir Putin launched his unlawful invasion of Ukraine is how Russia’s tradition of thievery and corruption has left their military brief at each level. Whether or not it’s supposedly amphibious automobiles sinking into rivers as a result of their seals haven’t been serviced, or rows of vans left idle by rotting tires, funds that had been purported to go to sustaining Russian tools went into the pocket of some colonel, basic, or oligarch. Electronics, and even engines, have been stripped out of tanks.
A lot of Russia’s supposed marvel weapons together with the Su-57 jet, have been barely current within the battle as a result of Russia has so few operational programs that it doesn’t dare danger them. The T-14 Armata tank, which first rolled out for a Victory Day Parade in 2014, has but to take the sector. Solely a handful of T-90 tanks, which began manufacturing in 1992, have been seen in Ukraine. T-62 tanks relationship from the Nineteen Sixties, and even T-55 tanks from the Fifties, have been way more widespread.
That’s all simply the large tools. However the extra apparent shortfall of the Russian provide chain isn’t the seen within the getting older {hardware} rolling slowly down the roads. It’s the folks standing within the mud.
It’s not simply outdated helmets and summer-weight uniforms which might be the problem. Russian forces have been instructed they should deliver their very own sleeping baggage. They’ve been making tents out of plastic wrap.
There’s completely little doubt that each Russian and Ukrainian forces are current in depressing situations, particularly on the lengthy established entrance strains the place trench warfare has turn into unspeakable through the fall mud season. As temperatures in Ukraine drift ever decrease, forces on either side are left coping with a half-frozen muddy slush, saturated clothes, and days of spitting snow and icy rain.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces appear to be doing an infinitely higher job at obtaining what they need to battle underneath these situations, in addition to creating situations the place folks can no less than briefly get out of the freezing mud, to heat up and have a sizzling meal.
Alternatively, Russia appears to be doing little to guarantee first rate situations for its troops on the entrance strains, particularly within the space round Bakhmut, the place Russia has resorting to throwing a close to fixed set of human waves on the entrenched Ukrainian positions. (Which is why the Ukrainian navy continues to report over 500 Russian deaths a day.)
However within the final couple of weeks, there was one thing simply … bizarre. Video after video wherein Russian forces barely appear to react to imminent threats. Typically, Day by day Kos avoids posting pictures or movies wherein persons are clearly being killed or severely injured. That is an exception, as a result of it’s not simply genuinely odd, it’s an instance of a complete class of comparable movies.
Ukraine correspondent Tom Warner has the identical conclusion after displaying this video that we’ve been strolling by means of right here—these males are freezing to demise. Their physique temperatures have lowered to the purpose the place they’re so incapable of movement that even a bomb touchdown of their midst isn’t a cause to stir.
And it’s nonetheless November.
Russia retains making statements about how armies have all the time made the error of attacking Russia in winter as if, one way or the other, it is a transportable protection. However now it’s Russia that’s away from residence, making an attempt to occupy an space in bitter situations on the finish of overstrained provide strains. They will lose so, so many males this winter.
This doesn’t imply that each silly motion by Russians in Ukraine at this level is fueled by hypothermia. They don’t seem to be. Russia took loads of boneheaded actions when the climate was heat, and there have even been movies of Russians behaving not too dissimilar to the group above over many months. However there does appear to be a particular cluster of WTF happening alongside the jap entrance in the intervening time, and a nasty case of chilled down brains appears pretty much as good a proof as any.
Russia’s determined missile gamble
As of late November, Russia appears much more fastened on destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. These assaults, waged with each missiles and drones, have finished billions of {dollars} in injury and left cities from Kyiv to Lviv at midnight for a lot of hours of the day. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s different military — the one composed of electricians, carpenters, and development crews, stays on the job. Most of the broken substations round Kyiv have now been repaired and the federal government is anticipating elevated hours of energy over the following week.
Electrical energy has even been restored to Kherson, the place on Saturday the lights went again on in some hospitals and different crucial infrastructure. Crews at the moment are engaged on restoring energy to particular person properties. Ukraine is even getting help from what could also be an sudden supply — a member of Russia’s crumbling CSTO alliance.
Destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure for the specific function of making an attempt to freeze the populace into accepting Russian occupation is a warfare crime. Nevertheless, that’s not Russia’s greatest downside with this technique. The most important downside is that it’s turning into more and more ineffective.
At the same time as Russia releases an increasing number of drones / missiles at a time, Ukraine is getting higher at taking pictures them down. A few of that’s made attainable by new air protection programs which have appeared in Ukrainian cities. A few of it’s merely extra expertise in utilizing current weapons towards the ever present Shahed-136 drone. All of which is main Russia into what looks like an extremely determined measure. That measure may be discovered on this replace from the British MOD.
Go learn that once more. Russia is taking AS-15 missiles, eradicating the nuclear warhead, and sticking on a block of one thing to behave as a counterweight to maintain the missile flying as designed. Then its throwing this useless weight at Ukraine. It could undoubtedly be disagreeable to be in a home or condo constructing hit by one in all these items, as that weight on the top is about 410kg (900lbs).
However the greatest cause Russia is launching these is simply to place one thing else within the air. They’re simply decoys despatched within the hopes that they’ll enable one other missile to get by means of towards Ukraine’s continuously enhancing price of shoot-downs.
Russia is cannibalizing it’s nuclear arsenal to offer decoys in hopes of taking out electrical substations in Ukraine. That’s fairly superb.
These tanks will not be about to save lots of Russia is Svatove
This video of a column of roughly 40 Russian T-80U tanks has been posted a number of occasions in the previous couple of days with claims that it’s shifting “within the path of Svatove.” Nevertheless, there’s no cause to suppose this picture is from that space, and even from this 12 months. Not one of the tanks appears to be marked with a “Z” or any of the opposite figuring out symbols which were used on this warfare. The vehicles which might be mingled within the combine both don’t have any plate, or the very broad plate attribute of the Russian federation. In any case, Russia has already misplaced no less than 89 documented T-80U and one other 176 T-80BV tanks because the invasion started.
Election season extra time is lastly winding down, so Democratic operative Joe Sudbay joins David Nir on The Downballot as a guest-host this week to recap a number of the final outcomes which have simply trickled in. On the prime of the record is the race for Arizona lawyer basic, the place Democrat Kris Mayes has a 510-vote lead with all ballots counted (a compulsory recount is unlikely to alter the end result). Additionally on the agenda is Arizona’s profitable Proposition 308, which is able to enable college students to obtain monetary help no matter immigration standing.
Over in California, Democrats simply took management of the boards of supervisors in two big counties, Riverside and Orange—within the case of the latter, for the primary time since 1976. Joe and David additionally focus on which Democratic candidates who fell simply brief this 12 months they’d wish to see strive once more in 2024, and what the GOP’s very skinny Home majority means for Kevin McCarthy’s prospects as speaker.
