There was no additional updates on the large information of the day—studies by Russian sources that Ukraine had crossed to the east of the Donets River, instantly threatening Russian provide strains at Vovchansk. Ukraine doesn’t announce liberated cities till days after the very fact. Russia doesn’t know what half its troops are doing at any given time, why give them a head’s up? It additionally prevents the embarrassment of dropping territory after asserting a liberation. Another reason: Ukraine doesn’t need individuals prematurely streaming again to their properties till the realm is away from invaders, mines, booby traps, useless our bodies, and different risks.
NASA FIRMS satellites observe forest fires … and struggle fires. Let’s see what it tells us.
There are two supposed crossings over the Donets, east of Kharkiv. The primary is at Staryi Saltiv, the place a protracted bridge was expeditiously repaired, and the second was additional north at Rubizhne, the place Ukraine reportedly laid a pontoon bridge. This tells us that solely the Staryi Saltiv crossing is seeing motion giant sufficient to be picked up by satellite tv for pc warmth sensors.
Trying on the FIRMS imagery, one thing is going on at Ukrainian-held Bazaliyevka, east of Chuhuiv, bordering Russian-held territory. If one thing is going on there, I might discover no report about it anyplace. The forested space east of Izyum stays on hearth, as Ukraine reportedly pushes towards Izyum’s western edge.
Within the Lyman-Severodonetsk axis, Russia continued to edge nearer to these two cities:
As Russia’s struggle machine falters, its ambitions shrink by the week. I’ve trotted this picture out the previous couple of days as a result of it actually brings dwelling simply how pathetic these “victories” above are to Russia’s struggle effort.
In the meantime, this video Monday evening from Russian state-run TV’s primary present is getting a substantial amount of consideration:
Each time he’s on, everybody jokes “off to the gulag it’s!” But he returns. Julia Davis claims they maintain him round to “assist mood the expectations, whereas different pundits promise quick, simple victories.” Kamil Galeev has a nice thread on this Mikhail Khodaryonok: “Out of all individuals within the room he’s probably the most sober one. Why? Effectively, could also be as a result of he is the one one with the substantial army expertise. He is a profession officer of the air defence who turned to a pundit profession solely after retirement.”
You may additionally bear in mind Khodaryonok because the creator of a prescient February 2 article in a Russian army publication warning towards the struggle, “Some representatives of the Russian political class at present declare that Russia is ready to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a number of hours (known as shorter phrases) if a army battle begins. Let’s have a look at how such statements correspond to actuality.” His predictions had been controversial in Russia—that “[n]o one will meet the Russian military with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine,” and warned that even Russian-speaking Ukrainians would resist. He mocked the concept of a blitzkrieg that may take out Ukrainian defenses in hours. He reminded readers of the “open shock” of Russian plane losses to Ukrainian defenses within the 2014 struggle, and the way air superiority didn’t assist Russian within the First Chechen struggle or Afghanistan anyway.
He predicted that “There isn’t a doubt that some reincarnation of Lend-Lease modeled and likeness of World Battle II will start on the a part of america and the North Atlantic Alliance international locations,” and that “There could also be an inflow of volunteers from the West, of whom there could also be lots.” And to those that scoffed on the high quality of Ukraine’s army, he had a sage warning, “If till 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine had been a fraction of the Soviet military, over the previous seven years a qualitatively totally different military has been created in Ukraine, on a very totally different ideological foundation and largely on NATO requirements. And at present very trendy weapons and tools are coming and proceed to reach in Ukraine from many international locations of the North Atlantic Alliance.”
He concluded, “Basically, there shall be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. Statements of some specialists reminiscent of ‘The Russian military will defeat many of the models of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes’, ‘Russia is ready to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in case of a full-scale struggle’, ‘Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes’ don’t have any critical cause.”
In print and on TV, he’s been the only real voice of cause inside Russia’s tightly managed media bubble. For no matter cause Putin retains round, it’s too dangerous nobody is definitely listening to him.