2:00PM Water Cooler 12/17/2021 | naked capitalism

robust>By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

One other migratory chicken. That is actually attractive. I don’t know their habits, however I think about an incredible congregation of Lesser Redpolls gathered, within the nightfall, earlier than sleep.

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#COVID19

Vaccination by area:

A curler coaster. (If by Bubba we imply The South, then Bubba has achieved fairly effectively on vax, regardless of all of the sturm und drang within the press.

61.2% of the US is absolutely (doubly) vaccinated (CDC information, reminiscent of it’s, as of December 16. The stately 0.1% rise per day returns. We now have damaged the necessary 61% psychological barrier! Mediocre by world requirements, being slightly below Estonia, and simply above Peru within the Monetary Instances league tables as of this Monday).

Case rely by United States areas:

Nonetheless fiddling and diddling. Additionally, as occurred in 2020, I’d anticipate a second, increased peak, from Omicron if for no different motive.

At a minimal, the official narrative that “Covid is behind us,” or that the pandemic shall be “over by January” (Gottlieb), or “I do know some folks appear to not wish to surrender on the great pandemic, however what? It’s over” (Invoice Maher) is clearly problematic. (This chart is a seven-day common, so adjustments in course solely present up when a practice is basically rolling.)

One of many sources of the concept Covid is on the way in which out, I’d speculate, is the CDC’s modeling hub (whose projections additionally appear to have been used to justify college re-opening). Right here is the present model of the chart from the CDC modeling hub, which aggregates the outcomes of eight fashions in 4 situations, with the final run (“Spherical 9”) having taken place on 2021-08-30, and plots present case information (black dotted line) towards the aggregated mannequin predictions (gray space), together with the typical of the aggregated mannequin predictions (black line). I’ve helpfully highlighted the case information mentioned above. Not up to date:

Case information (black dotted line) has been throughout the tolerance of the fashions; it doesn’t conform to the fashions’ common (black line), but it surely stays inside aggregated predictions (the gray space).

I wrote: “It’s too early to say ‘Dammit, CDC, your fashions have been damaged’; but it surely’s not too quickly to contemplate the likelihood that they is perhaps. The case information nonetheless appears prefer it’s attempting to interrupt out of the gray space. We will see.” The case information has now damaged out of the gray space (see at “Oopsie!”). For the reason that fashions are aggregated typical knowledge, it’s not truthful to name them propaganda, precisely. Nonetheless. typical knowledge is trying a little bit shaky, and anyone who relied on them to foretell that we’d be “again to regular” by early subsequent 12 months ought to be taking one other have a look at their assumptions. And that is — I assume — earlier than Omicron!

MWRA (Boston-area) wastewater detection, not up to date:

Nonetheless a steep drop within the common, just like the final peak. We’ll see if will get uneven once more, or not.

The Massachusetts Water Sources Authority (MWRA) service space consists of 43 municipalities in and round Boston, together with not solely a number of college programs however a number of giant universities. Since Boston is so very education-heavy, then, I believe it could possibly be a superb main indicator for Covid unfold in faculties usually.

From CDC: “Neighborhood Profile Report” (PDF), “Speedy Riser” counties:

Maine improved. Higher Midwest improved. Acela hall sketchy. Extra flecks of pink, particularly in Texas. Bizarre flare-ups, like flying coals in a forest hearth. They land, catch, however — one hopes — sputter out. The fleck of pink in the midst of New York close to the Pennsylvania border is, I believe, Ithaca (i.e., Cornell).

The earlier launch:

Hospitalization (CDC Neighborhood Profile):

I’ve helpfully highlighted the states the place the “pattern” arrow factors up in yellow, and the place it’s vertical, in orange. (Observe pattern, whether or not up or down, is marked by the arrow, at prime. Admissions are introduced within the graph, on the backside. So it’s doable to have an upward pattern, however from a really low baseline.)

Dying fee (Our World in Knowledge):

Complete: 824,520 823,390. At this fee, I don’t suppose we’ll hit the million mark by New 12 months’s.

Extra deaths (whole, not solely from Covid). Not up to date:

Laborious to imagine we have now no extra deaths now, however very lucky in that case. (CDC explains there are information lags).

Covid instances in historic variant sources, with additions from the Mind Belief:

South Africa’s rise appears linear, although it is a log scale. Have a look at the UK, too. Sorry for the kerfuffle on the left. Regardless of how I tinker, it doesn’t go away.

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d one weapon left and each knew it: treachery.” –Frank Herbert, Dune

“They’d discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

Capitol Seizure

“A idea: How Trump’s Jan. 6 coup plan labored, how shut it got here, why it failed | Will Bunch” [Will Bunch, The Inquirer]. “We now know that Trump’s prime aide, chief of employees Mark Meadows, had written in an electronic mail on January 5 — the identical day as Trump’s tweet and memo about “Antifa” — that the Nationwide Guard was on standby “to guard pro-Trump folks” the following day. His phrases solely make sense within the context of anticipated clashes with leftists…. However right here’s the factor: . Their absence clearly flummoxed Staff Trump, and even the president’s allies on the Fox Information Channel, who all through the day blamed violence on ‘antifa’ who clearly weren’t there. Critically, the shortage of anticipated road clashes clarify the beautiful three-hour failure by the Nationwide Guard to answer officers pleading for troops to assist cease the riot.”

“Home panel subpoenas writer of Jan. 6 PowerPoint” [The Hill]. “The Home committee investigating the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol has subpoenaed the person who dispersed a PowerPoint laying out the Trump marketing campaign’s plans for contesting the 2020 election and who briefed a number of lawmakers on the technique. The subpoena to Phil Waldron, a retired Military colonel, comes after his 38-page PowerPoint titled ‘Election Fraud, International Interference & Choices for six JAN’ was included in a trove of emails to former White Home chief of employees Mark Meadows.’”

Biden Administration

“Senate knowledgeable to transient Democrats on potential guidelines adjustments” [The Hill]. “A former management staffer will transient Senate Democrats throughout a closed-door caucus lunch Friday about how they might doubtlessly change the higher chamber’s guidelines as they renew their concentrate on passing voting rights laws. Senate Majority Chief Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) stated Marty Paone, a former secretary of the Democratic convention and parliamentary knowledgeable, briefed a gaggle of Senate Democrats Thursday night time and can communicate throughout their caucus lunch Friday. ‘Final night time a lot of my colleagues and I met with Marty Paone, a Senate guidelines knowledgeable who labored beneath previous management, together with Robert C. Byrd, about how we are able to restore the Senate so it could possibly work the way in which our founders supposed,’ Schumer stated.” • Nicely, that ought to do it.

“The Memo: Failure on huge invoice would spark cascade of bother for Biden” [The Hill]. “When it comes to the larger image, there may be deepening pessimism in Democratic circles concerning the destiny of the [Build Back Better] enormous social spending invoice [and it’s not all that huge[. Talks between Biden and Manchin this week failed to make meaningful progress, instead exposing the breadth of the gulf that remained. Manchin has never committed to supporting the Build Back Better plan, even though it has been scaled down significantly, largely at his behest. Amid the impasse, both the White House and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) have backed off earlier pledges to try to move the legislation before Christmas. And Biden himself appears to be turning his attention to voting rights rather than the social spending plan that has been the keystone of his domestic agenda. On Wednesday, Biden said there was ‘nothing domestically more important than voting rights.’ The outlook for voting rights is even bleaker than it ever was for Build Back Better, however. Thanks to unified Republican opposition, movement on the topic will be impossible without reform of the Senate filibuster — something Manchin also opposes.” • Again, this is the party the Democrat leadership built, over many years, with a lot of hard work (and specifically on Manchin and Sinema’s behalf). It is broken by design.

“Democrats rev up voting rights push to end 2021. But Senate path remains elusive.” [NBC]. “Senate Democrats, desirous to salvage a victory as they lose hope of ending the Construct Again Higher Act earlier than Christmas, have turned their consideration to voting rights laws. Nonetheless, two key obstacles stay: Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. And it’s not clear Democrats have a path to win over their two colleagues to pressure a vote on the invoice, regardless of important shifts from different moderates and a pissed off voting base clamoring loudly for Congress to behave. Lengthy-simmering frustrations amongst outstanding Black leaders seemed to be boiling over as they strain President Joe Biden to do extra to encourage the Senate to behave. Progressive advocacy teams have revved up their strain campaigns, fearing that point is working out to avert what they see as an existential risk to democracy. Leaders of the trouble within the Senate, notably Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, have held conferences with colleagues to discover a path ahead. And moderates like Sens. Mark Warner of Virginia and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, stated this week they’re prepared to alter the Senate guidelines to permit a vote on an election overhaul. However regardless of this motion, it will not be sufficient.” • Doing the identical factor and anticipating a special outcome?

“US Ends Settlement Talks With Households Separated By Trump Border Coverage” [HuffPo]. “The U.S. authorities withdrew Thursday from settlement negotiations to finish lawsuits filed on behalf of oldsters and youngsters who have been forcibly separated beneath the Trump administration’s zero-tolerance border coverage. Justice Division officers knowledgeable attorneys for the plaintiffs in a convention name that the federal government wouldn’t provide a world settlement in household separation instances and can defend each in court docket, stated Lee Gelernt, an legal professional with the American Civil Liberties Union, which filed one of many fits. The choice comes after eight months of negotiations and weeks after experiences of a proposed settlement that would come with funds of a number of hundred thousand {dollars} to every household sparked outrage amongst Biden administration critics in Congress and elsewhere.” • However the infants!!!!!

Democrats en Deshabille

Lambert right here: Clearly, the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself. Why is that? First, the Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood. (Observe that voters don’t seem inside this construction. That’s as a result of, not like say UK Labour or DSA, the Democrat Celebration just isn’t a membership group. Boring normals might “establish” with the Democrat Celebration, however they can’t be a part of it, besides as apparatchiks at no matter degree.) No matter, if something, that’s to interchange the Democrat Celebration must exhibit the operational functionality to cope with all this. Sadly, I see nothing of the requisite scale and scope on the horizon, although I’d like to be fallacious. (If Sanders had leaped nimbly from the electoral practice to the strike wave practice after shedding in 2020, as a substitute of that weak charity sh*t he went with, issues is perhaps totally different at present. I’m not positive that was in him to do, and I’m unsure he had the employees to do it, though I imagine such a pivot to a “battle of motion” would have been very talked-about together with his small donors. What a disgrace the app wasn’t two-way.) Ah effectively, however.

For an instance of the category energy that the PMC can wield, look no additional than RussiaGate. All of the working components of the Democrat Celebration fired on all cylinders to cripple an elected President; it was very efficient, and went on for years. Now think about that the identical Celebration had labored, throughout Covid, to create an alternate narrative — see Ferguson et al., supra, to see what such a story might need appeared like, and with the unions (particularly lecturers) concerned. On the very least, the Biden Administration would have had a plan, and the bottom ready for it. At the most effective, a “parallel authorities” (Gene Sharp #198) would have emerged, able to take energy in 2020. As a substitute, all we acquired was [genuflects] Tony Fauci. And Cuomo and Newsom butchering their respective Blue States, in fact. The distinction? With RussiaGate, Democrats have been stopping governance. In my different situation, they’d have been making ready for it.

And whereas we’re at it: Consider the left’s applications, and lay them towards the PMC’s pursuits. (1) Free School, even neighborhood school. Might devalue PMC credentials. Na ga occur. (2) MedicareForAll. Ends jobs assure for means-testing gatekeepers in authorities, profit-through-denial-of-care gatekeepers within the medical health insurance enterprise, to not point out opposition from some medical guilds. Na ga occur. (3) Ending the empire (and reining within the nationwide safety state). The lights would exit throughout Fairfax and Loudon counties. Na ga occur. These are all wonderful coverage objectives. However let’s be clear that it’s not solely billionaires who oppose them.

Exhibiting the PMC’s incapability to control, as a category they appear unable to increase their scope of operations into new fields. Think about the chances of the “Swiss Cheese Mannequin.” Layered defenses embrace intensive testing, contact tracing, air flow programs (not merely blue collar HVAC work, however design and analysis), and quarantines. If we have a look at every layer as a jobs assure for credentialed professionals and managers, like ObamaCare, the alternatives are super (and that’s earlier than we get to all of the coaching and consulting). And but the PMC hasn’t advocated for this mannequin in any respect. As a substitute, we get authoritarian followership (Fauci) and a totalizing and tribalizing religion in a particularly dangerous vax-only resolution. Why? It’s nearly as in the event that they’re “performing towards their very own self-interest,” and I don’t faux to grasp it.

And I’m not the one one who’s puzzled. “Even in the event you…

already did droop the filibuster for particular causes previously and would now for SC nominees. It has razor-thin margins but can nonetheless go large spending payments. Invoking Manchin or Sinema would not actually clarify the puzzle; it simply re-describes it.

— corey robin (@CoreyRobin) December 2, 2021

A second instance of the PMC’s incapability to control comes beneath the rubric of “our democracy.” Of the varied elements of the Democrat get together, NGOs, miscellaneous mercenaries, belongings within the press, and the intelligence neighborhood all imagine — or not less than repeat vociferously — that “our democracy” is beneath risk, whether or not from election integrity points, or from fascism. However different elements — funders, distributors, apparatchiks, and electeds — don’t imagine this in any respect. On election integrity, HR 1 has not handed. Gerrymandering continues apace (additionally an indication that Republicans take their politics rather more critically than Democrats do). On fascism, I suppose we have now Pelosi’s January 6 Fee. However nothing illegal occurred, or we’d have Merrick Garland’s January Investigation. The mix of hysterical yammering from some Democrats and blithe indifference from others is extraordinarily unsettling. (This leaves apart the query of whether or not Democrats, as a celebration, have the standing to complain about both the erosion of democracy or the imminence of fascism. I say no.) After all, there’s a resolution to the issues with “our democracy”:

Prediction

Democrats will clear up the issue of minoritarian tyranny by shedding the favored vote. https://t.co/hdw4IxTu2b

— Alice in Winter (@AliceFromQueens) November 18, 2021

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“Political suicide” [White Hot Harlots]. “One in all my most offensive (or possibly fatalistic) beliefs is that the Biden administration, as it’s constituted and the way it governs, is a type of reparations…. Right here’s what Precise Reparations entail: the token diversification of the elite castes in Democratic politics and different liberal-dominated arenas together with just a few thousand sinecures for the race stooges who labored dutifully in 2016-2020 to make sure that banks and pharmaceutical corporations shall by no means really feel unsafe. … That is the tip results of the Stan-Tradition-as-Politics paradigm that’s dominated liberalism since Obama’s ascent. The success of a small handful of people from traditionally marginalized teams is proffered as an alternative to systemic reforms. You don’t battle racism by rebuilding the infrastructure of black communities which have been left to rot. As a substitute, you battle racism by making Beyonce richer. Her success is your success. Ignore the truth that your faucet water has chunks in it and rejoice what number of books Amanda Gorman simply offered. That is progress. That is liberalism. This, I’m sorry to say, is your reparations. Now, such an method to politics was sufficient to beat a demented recreation present host on the second strive, however I’m afraid it’s already sputtering out. The generic poll now favors Republicans by a better margin than has ever been recorded, Biden’s already polling beneath 40% and is ready to repeal a lot of the COVID-era’s monetary reduction insurance policies in just a few weeks, and–oh, wow, fuck–hispanic voters at the moment are cut up evenly between the 2 events, and upper-class Asian People seem to have been the decisive issue within the GOP’s stunning upset within the Virginia gubernatorial race.” • And an identical story:

Everybody has been specializing in AD40, in Flushing, which Sliwa narrowly flipped towards Eric Adams. However Sliwa, the Republican, additionally dominated two Democrat-represented AD’s in Brooklyn which might be Asian-majority, AD47 and AD49.

— Ross Barkan (@RossBarkan) December 12, 2021

“Democrats ought to fear about what’s occurring in Biden nation” [Financial Times]. Cobb County. “A few of this may sound acquainted to Biden. At an identical stage in his vice-presidency, the Obama administration had pulled the worldwide monetary system again from the brink of the 2008 disaster and handed a serious home stimulus. However the White Home’s ineffectiveness touting these achievements finally led to a drubbing within the 2010 midterms, with Republicans ending unified Democratic management of Congress. Now, as president, Biden faces an identical drawback. ‘I believe that there’s a messaging vacuum,’ provides [Jon Epstein, a 53-year-old teacher}. ‘And if the Democrats don’t fill it, the Republicans are more than happy to.’” • Sourcing very much oriented toward the Democrat base.

Joe Biden owes me six hundred bucks:

Relief package: $400B smaller than the CARES Act
College debt moratorium: ended under the Democratic president
Eviction moratorium: ended under the Democratic president
Unemployment extension: ended under the Democratic president

— August J. Pollak (Taylor’s Version) (@AugustJPollak) December 17, 2021

[Pounds head on desk]:

Simply realized—almost 2 years late—that my shaving cream is celebrating 100 years. Thanks Barbasol for making my day by day face scraping marginally much less painful! Now with Soothing Aloe and a Rust Proof Aluminum Backside. pic.twitter.com/BZZkVe4VXS

— Tim Kaine (@timkaine) December 17, 2021

Product placement? Mind fart? The place was the Clinton Vice-Presidential selection’s employees on this?

Pothole Sandy:

Ever marvel what a congressional district workplace does?

This 12 months, our constituent liaisons opened 1,800 instances, serving to our neighbors in The Bronx and Queens navigate federal providers like stimulus checks, immigration filings, PPP loans, Social Safety, Medicare, and extra. pic.twitter.com/URGAQ1N1jc

— Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@RepAOC) December 16, 2021

And a superb factor, too!

“A classical machine studying approach for simpler segmentation of mummified stays” [Phys.org]. • Wait. That is science. How’d it get in this part?

Clinton Legacy

Please cease:

I imagine all of us possess the power to steer, and I wish to provide help to develop these expertise. From empowering numerous groups to mediating battle, I’m sharing the teachings I discovered throughout my profession in public service. I hope you’ll be a part of me on @MasterClass. https://t.co/vhBWYr1GKJ pic.twitter.com/fwK0BmhNZR

— Invoice Clinton (@BillClinton) December 16, 2021

Realignment and Legitimacy

“What Is Pelosi’s Endgame?” [Charles Cook, Cook Political Report]. Cook dinner has been writing on American politics for years. So I learn all of it. Right here is Cook dinner’s extraordinary remaining sentence: “We live in a really odd world now. There is no such thing as a telling what we shall be considering and speaking a few week from now, not to mention a 12 months.” • Cook dinner is appropriate. And it’s not merely a matter of considering and speaking. I believe it’s turning into a matter of our political preparations. I didn’t happen to me — and didn’t, I believe, happen to many — that Biden’s efficiency on Covid would really be worse than Trump’s, in case your metric is the dying rely (and I believe that’s a superb metric). For all his fumbling and malice, Trump gave us Operation Warp Pace and the vaccines. And what did Biden do? Wager the nation on a Vax-only technique that has now demonstrably failed. In some unspecified time in the future, accountability arrives. The physique rely, the natural harm, is just too excessive.

“The pressure of historic decline.” [Haydar Khan, The Scrum]. Galbraith v. Thiel. I’m pulling out this quote from Galbraith: “The institutional, infrastructure, useful resource foundation, and psychological foundations for a Keynesian revival not exist.” Makes me consider Medicare for All. Does the nation have the operational functionality to ship it? Primarily based on our response of Covid, no.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of observe.

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The Bezzle: “Melania Trump declares new line of NFTs” [The Hill]. “Melania Trump is getting into the world of NFTs, promoting ‘breathtaking watercolor artwork’ that includes a picture of her eyes to collectors. The previous first girl made the announcement on Thursday, saying the nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, shall be launched in common intervals. The primary one, titled ‘Melania’s Imaginative and prescient,” consists of the portray of Trump’s eyes by artist Marc-Antoine Coulon and an audio message. ‘My imaginative and prescient is: look ahead with inspiration, energy, and braveness,’ Trump says within the clip. The gross sales web site for the NFT, priced at $186 as of Thursday morning, says it is going to present the collector ‘with energy and hope’ and ‘an amulet to encourage.’” • So that is the place we’re: Amulets. Right here it’s:

Higher than Hunter Biden’s artwork? You resolve:

The Bezzle: “Automotive Corporations Need You to Hold Paying For Options You Already Have” [Vice]. “Again within the day, automotive corporations made cash by promoting automobiles and financing these automotive purchases. Now, automakers plan to make much more cash by promoting subscriptions and software program updates to automobiles which have already been offered, even perhaps for options folks anticipate automobiles to have. Brace yourselves now for this nickel-and-diming future. Automakers have been pretty specific that they see “Software program as a Service,” as it’s recognized in enterprise communicate, as a big earner to make again a few of the billions of {dollars} they spend money on electrical and autonomous car improvement…. the large play right here just isn’t going to be the $80-a-year stuff for marginal options like distant begin. As a substitute, it will likely be efficiency, vary, and maybe even security upgrades to electrical automobiles that make the precise automotive higher at being a automotive. These have been upgrades that have been tough or not possible to engineer with fuel automobiles, however are comparatively trivial for electrical ones. The objective, from the automakers’ perspective, shall be getting folks to pay for a similar factor a number of occasions as usually as doable. This technique is taking its cue from Tesla, which calls over-the-air upgrades ‘an important a part of the Tesla possession expertise.’”

The Bezzle: “Elizabeth Holmes ‘selected fraud over enterprise failure,’ prosecutors say in Theranos closing arguments” [NBC]. “Mentioning paperwork on displays in entrance of the jury field, [Assistant U.S. Attorney Jeff Schenk] reviewed how Holmes had affixed pharmaceutical firm logos to Theranos lab experiences to indicate endorsement. The businesses, Pfizer and Schering-Plough amongst them, had neither endorsed the outcomes nor approved the usage of their logos, witnesses testified. Holmes additionally altered, enhanced or doctored the conclusions to make the experiences seem even rosier, Schenk argued….. The protection argued that Holmes had acted in good religion and that the federal government had did not show that she acted with intent to deceive.” And offers 5 causes, one in all which is: ” Holmes had the corporate’s know-how validated by Johns Hopkins College, on the request of Walgreens, and was not afraid of out of doors overview.” • It’s an unpleasant thought, however this will say extra about Johns Hopkins than Holmes? Granted, I don’t know the element on this. Readers?

Manufacturing: “Qantas switches home fleet to Airbus in blow to Boeing” [Reuters]. “For Boeing, the lack of the coveted Qantas contract is an additional blow to its 737 MAX…. It interrupts a powerful run of gross sales because the jet was cleared for flight late final 12 months following a security ban and means an additional lack of narrowbody market share to Airbus. Qantas has operated Boeing jets since 1959 and was as soon as the world’s solely airline with an all 747 fleet. The U.S. planemaker will now provide solely its long-haul 787 Dreamliners.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing desires to construct its subsequent airplane within the ‘metaverse’” [Reuters]. “In Boeing Co’s (BA.N) manufacturing unit of the longer term, immersive 3-D engineering designs shall be twinned with robots that talk to one another, whereas mechanics around the globe shall be linked by $3,500 HoloLens headsets made by Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O). It’s a snapshot of an bold new Boeing technique to unify sprawling design, manufacturing and airline providers operations beneath a single digital ecosystem – in as little as two years. Critics say Boeing has repeatedly made comparable daring pledges on a digital revolution, with combined outcomes. However insiders say the overarching objectives of bettering high quality and security have taken on better urgency and significance as the corporate tackles a number of threats. The planemaker is getting into 2022 preventing to reassert its engineering dominance after the 737 MAX disaster, whereas laying the inspiration for a future plane program over the following decade.” • Give an MBA a VR headset, and that is what you get. Quick them.

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Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 29 Worry (earlier shut: 31 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 32 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 17 at 11:37am. The dial is again! Maybe writing CNN really helped!

The Biosphere

“Insurance coverage Corporations Are Profiting Massive Off of Local weather Change” [Jacobin]. “‘With out insurance coverage, new coal fired energy crops wouldn’t get constructed. With out insurance coverage, oil refineries wouldn’t refine,’ stated Douglas Heller, insurance coverage knowledgeable on the analysis and advocacy group Client Federation of America. ‘That doesn’t imply that the insurance coverage business is solely answerable for fossil fuels. However it’s part of the equation.’ The issue isn’t just that insurance coverage corporations provide protection to fossil gasoline tasks, however in addition they use thousands and thousands of individuals’s premiums to spend money on — and supply capital to — the fossil gasoline business’s enlargement. State insurance coverage commissioners have the ability to reveal and curtail these actions. However as a result of the fossil gasoline business has pumped tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} into state politics, most states apart from California have refused to take action. In the meantime, the Republican stronghold of North Dakota — one in all America’s largest producers of coal — is now exploring offering government-supported insurance coverage to the fossil gasoline business. However now there’s some excellent news: insurance coverage regulators and legislators in New York and Connecticut, each of that are key states for the insurance coverage business, have taken steps to battle again — suggesting a brand new entrance could possibly be rising within the battle on world polluters.”

“Air air pollution from a Virginia landfill is making residents sick. Officers received’t name it an emergency” [Southerly]. “Since January 2020, engineering agency SCS Engineers has been beneath contract with town to watch and report temperatures and different key information from the fuel wells. A number of occasions that 12 months, beginning in July, temperatures in a number of wells exceeded the utmost allowed restrict. However in a violation discover obtained by way of a public data request, state environmental regulators stated town falsely reported having no extreme temperatures throughout 2020—and it did nothing to increase the dump’s fuel assortment system, a step the location’s allow required for 2 of the violations…. The fuel wells that started overheating final 12 months have since develop into the placement of a chemical response that’s continued heating the trash—in a single effectively, to temperatures near 200 levels—whereas belching dangerous gases and chemical substances. Ernie Hoch, a marketing consultant for Richmond-based agency Draper Aden who’s main the repairs, stated that the difficulty is occurring greater than 100 toes beneath the floor, and it’s unclear how giant it could possibly be.” • Yikes. Price studying in full, particularly in the event you stay close to a landfill. This landfill sounds exceptionally nasty, however all landfills are nasty.

“Millipedes Have Been Residing a Lie” [The Atlantic]. “Eumillipes persephone, found deep underground in Australia, is the primary millipede ever recognized with greater than 1,000 legs. The rely really involves a whopping 1,306, a quantity that completely demolishes the earlier document holder (750 legs, you tried!) and wins E. persephone the title of most-legged animal on Earth. All hail!…The creature, which appears like a pointy-headed spaghetti noodle carrying full-body cleats, is awfully small—not even 4 inches—and lives removed from most different recognized millipedes, almost 200 toes beneath the floor. That pointed head, Marek defined, is vital for navigation at such depths. As they burrow and search for fungal spores to eat, the entrance of a millipede’s physique expands into crevices, stretching in width to “present an anchor,” Marek says. The again parts then catch up in a form of Slinky movement, coiling up till the animal decides to maneuver ahead as soon as extra. Someway, they don’t get tangled…. The critters can’t management every leg individually (think about that site visitors jam), however as a substitute use a single nerve wire that travels the size of their physique to coordinate the motion. They’re sluggish and swish, even at 1,306 legs robust. Some may even use their next-level limb management to leap, although most persist with burrowing and scuttling round within the dust.” • Neat! The article has a video of a millipede in movement. It appears somewhat like a high-speed practice. (They’ve excessive pace trains in Europe and Asia, for our American readers.)

“DNA in Air Can Catalog Hidden Bugs Throughout Us” [Scientific American]. “A brand new poster, introduced this week on the Ecology Throughout Borders convention, experiences on a proof-of-concept effort to indicate the way it works. Whereas employed as a postdoctoral fellow at Lund College in Sweden, Fabian Roger collected airborne samples utilizing a commercially obtainable liquid cyclone contraption, which swirls air right into a liquid-filled tube, thereby trapping DNA fragments beforehand borne within the air. He collected air samples at three areas in southern Sweden, the place he additionally used conventional strategies to survey bugs for comparability… The staff discovered traces of DNA from 85 species, together with butterflies, beetles, ants, flies and their shut kinfolk…. A number of eDNA and air points stay hazy, says Elizabeth Clare, a molecular ecologist at York College in Canada, who has labored on comparable air-sampling research. For one, it’s unclear how lengthy a person insect’s DNA persists within the air after it has flitted away. Are researchers sensing a latest go to or one made months in the past? Research have discovered intact DNA in permafrost as much as 10,000 years after organisms perished. However in different situations, reminiscent of publicity to ultraviolet radiation from the solar, DNA might degrade shortly.”

“These astronauts will be capable to unlock Mars’ secrets and techniques by rocks on Earth” [Euronews]. “As a part of the Pangaea mission, organised by the European Area Company (ESA), the astronaut candidates are getting primary coaching in geology and rock sampling – all to equip them with the scientific expertise required for Mars and Lunar missions…. The three-week programme takes them to the Dolomites in Italy, a mountain vary within the northeast of the nation, the 15-million-year-old Rise crater in Germany, and to the volcanic landscapes of the Canary islands. Seemingly we’d land close to, for instance, a crater or maybe a lava outflow channel, or if it’s on Mars, maybe what we imagine to be an historic riverbed or lakebed the place there doubtlessly may have been flowing water previously. There they learn to use rock hammers and magnifying glasses, take samples with out contaminating them and relay information again to scientists through specialised tablets.” • It will appear extra wise to coach a geologist to be an astronaut, somewhat an an astronaut to be a geologist. Can that be achieved?

Well being Care

Not such a foul thought:

I am suggesting that US actually offers assessments to all People & accomplish that WITH A STRATEGY

No Insurance coverage Reimbursements (that is public well being, not medication!)

Have a plan (I prompt a helpful and doable one above) and get the assessments out.

It should assist curb unfold

2/

— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) December 17, 2021

Technique? Huh? We now have a method. It’s Vax Vax Vax. What’s fallacious with you? And talking of issues we squandered a 12 months not doing–

Masks:

We wrote this a 12 months in the past— the identical holds true but once more. No excuses for being unprepared this time round @JoeBiden @WhiteHouse #BetterMasks https://t.co/fGA1zp3Iw2 pic.twitter.com/tuWhPY5atQ

— Abraar Karan (@AbraarKaran) December 17, 2021

Your own home (if in case you have one) is a chimney. A superb visualization:

The air transferring up a chimney works beneath the identical set of bodily ideas as water flowing in a pipe. However air strain is adverse and chimneys are adverse strain programs: the warmer the fireplace, the largest the draft https://t.co/21T6TTMtyq [gif: https://t.co/mBDEg5ziD9] pic.twitter.com/b5WRB8rIJB

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) December 17, 2021

Consider all of the virus going up the chimney. That’s what you need. The identical impact, although not as highly effective, might be achieved by opening an upstairs window or a vent on the roof. You possibly can take a look at the ensuing draft with a candle or an incense stick. You is perhaps stunned at how a lot draft there may be.

One other tackle Guateng:

Clear proof that covid instances have peaked in #Gauteng province in South Africa suggests we don’t absolutely perceive epidemiology of this variant. The very speedy rise after which decline in instances suggests many prospects, together with that we’re lacking a variety of subclinical an infection pic.twitter.com/7FlOZ2p1Ga

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) December 17, 2021

I are inclined to suppose we don’t know very a lot about something. We don’t perceive the immune system, for instance. (That is in all probability good, as a result of if we may, viruses and different micro-organisms would, too, since they work at a scale we can not.)

And on Omicron:

⚠️BREAKING—Imperial School research finds #Omicron could possibly be **simply as extreme** because the Delta pressure, in response to early findings from researchers at Imperial School London.

➡️All those that stated “it’s delicate” want to consider what number of they’ve endangered.https://t.co/RI1U4rmlGr pic.twitter.com/RbKdXl0RUr

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 17, 2021

Lead your life:

Friday morning practice into NYC is completely packed pic.twitter.com/Nn7RaCBEsX

— tae kim (@firstadopter) December 17, 2021

Class Warfare

“The Dying Toll Says It All” [The Atlantic]. “About 75 % of COVID deaths within the U.S.—600,000 misplaced lives—have been amongst folks ages 65 and older.” • I assume in the event you suppose Social Safety can go bankrupt, it is a good factor. Everyone should do their half, in any case.

Information of the Wired

I stay unwired, so here’s a Spring portray from one of many many artbots I comply with (and I actually suggest this apply as a psychological palate cleanser):

Spring Morning, Cloudy, Eragny, 1900 #pissarro #impressionism pic.twitter.com/R93wBsWQTU

— Camille Pissarro (@artpissarro) December 9, 2021

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. Immediately’s plant (petal):

Christmas-y!

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Readers, thanks for all of the plant photos!

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the just lately concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated.

When you hate PayPal, you possibly can electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on how one can ship a test. Thanks!